Suppositions – 20

The following pairs are for intra-day variations of Bombay Stock Market index Sensex on November 19, 2007.

1. -106S, -439B

2. +112B, +207S

3. +299B, +602S

Note

Please read Notes and Disclaimers.

Outcomes – 19

Change in Sensex: Open: -182, High: +53, Low: -312, Close: -87

Reference: Previous close value

(+78B, +327S) was not triggered. (-86S, -475B) was triggered at 10:51 and was successful only from 14:53 to 15:09; a very short duration indeed.

Reference: Open value

(+78B, +327S) becomes (-104B, +145S) in the new reference. -104 was triggered from the beginning and the trigger was successful for a long time during the day. The market reached the maximum +53. -86 becomes -268. The market touched this level immediately after it opened and was not successful during the day.

It again looks like taking open value as reference is better than previous close value and the triggers have to be initiated only after few minutes of delay when the market opens.

Intra-day Sensex data courtesy: www.capitalmarket.com

Suppositions – 19

The following pairs are for intra-day variations of Bombay Stock Market index Sensex on November 16, 2007.

1. -86S, -475B

2. +78B, +327S

Note

Please read Notes and Disclaimers.

Outcomes – 18

Reference: Previous close value

Change in Sensex: Open: +19, High: +38, Low: -206, Close: -144

(-125S,-397B) was triggered at 11:23. Though the market did not reach -206, the trigger was successful as the market was below -125 most of the time till 14:57 and reached the low at -206 during that interval. The positive trends were not triggered.

Reference: Open value

Change in Sensex: Open: 0, High: +19, Low: -225, Close: -163

(-125S,-397B), in the new reference (-106S, -378B), was triggered at 10:39. Though the market did not reach -225, the trigger was successful as the market was below -106 most of the time till 15:00 and reached the low at -225 during that interval. The positive trends were not triggered.

Intra-day Sensex data courtesy: www.capitalmarket.com

Suppositions – 18

The following pairs are for intra-day variations of Bombay Stock Market index Sensex on November 15, 2007.

1. -125S, -397B

2. +120B, +260S

3. +401B, +720S

Note

Please read Notes and Disclaimers.

Outcomes – 17

Reference: Previous close value

Change in Sensex: Open: +301, High: +952, Low: +301, Close: +894

(-68S, -143B): Not triggered; (+30B, +486S): Triggered immediately when market opened at +301 and was successful; (+631B, +928S): Triggered at 11:58 and was successful.

Reference: Open value

Change in Sensex: Open: 0, High: +651, Low: 0, Close: +593

(-68S, -143B): Not triggered; (+30B, +486S): Triggered immediately when market opened and was successful; (+631B, +928S): Triggered only at 15:18, and was not initiated.

Intra-day Sensex data courtesy: www.capitalmarket.com

 

Suppositions – 17

The following pairs are for intra-day variations of Bombay Stock Market index Sensex on November 14, 2007.

1. -68S, -143B

2. +30B, +486S

3. +631B, +928S

Note

Please read Notes and Disclaimers.

Outcomes – 16

Reference: Previous close value

Change in Sensex: Open: -56, High: +473, Low: -101, Close: +298

(+35B, +255S) was successful. +480 was not triggered. -50 was initiated as the market opened and was not successful. This shows that we may have to allow certain minutes before using the triggers.

Reference: Open value

Change in Sensex: Open: 0, High: +529, Low: -45, Close: +354

(+35B, +255S) was successful. +480 was triggered at 14:28 and was not initiated due to the late trigger. -50 was not triggered.

Intra-day Sensex data courtesy: www.capitalmarket.com

 

Suppositions – 16

The following pairs are for intra-day variations of Bombay Stock Market index Sensex on November 13, 2007.

1. +35B, +255S

2. +480B, +708S

3. -50S, -192B

Note

Please read Notes and Disclaimers.

Outcomes – 15

Reference: Previous close value

Change in Sensex: Open: -267, High: -93, Low: -574, Close: -170

(43B, 277S) and (-50S, -177B) were not triggered. The market opened with complete dominance of the triggers. As we indicated before, if the trigger was completely dominated by the open value, it would be better to take the reference value as the open value than the previous day close value.

Reference: Open value

Change in Sensex: Open: 0, High: +175, Low: -307, Close: +97

(43B, 277S), i.e. (-224B, +10S), was triggered at 14:21 and the market was above -224 most of the time after 14:21. The trigger was successful. (-50S,-177B), i.e. (-319S, -446B), was triggered at 13:56 and the market was down from that value for a short time, and thereafter the Sensex value was increasing. This trigger was not successful.

Intra-day Sensex data courtesy: www.capitalmarket.com